morteza jafarzade najar; Sabahi
Abstract
Mainly, assets are classified into current assets including cash, foreign exchange and gold coins, fixed assets including land, buildings, and housing, long time investments including bonds, stocks and long-term deposit, and finally intangible assets including patents and goodwill. The major assets that ...
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Mainly, assets are classified into current assets including cash, foreign exchange and gold coins, fixed assets including land, buildings, and housing, long time investments including bonds, stocks and long-term deposit, and finally intangible assets including patents and goodwill. The major assets that households keep in their portfolio are gold coins, various exchange, stocks and housing. In Iranian household culture, gold has always been considered a good financial backing. The reason for this can be attributed to the liquidity of gold and its intrinsic value. Thus, governments try to find solutions for managing price of the assets in the portfolio of household by planning and making use of certain policies.
Theoretical framework
Gold, along with oil, is one of the strategic products in international markets. In the meantime, gold, due to the intrinsic value, incorruption, enjoying popularity, hight liquidity and low maintenance costs, is very important. The price of gold is influenced by the forces of market supply and demand. However, since gold is among sensitive and strategic goods, many factors affect supply and demand and therefore its price. The most important influencing factors are changes in dollar and foreign exchange reserves, in interest rates, in the world price of oil, and global inflation.
Methodology
In Engel-Granger method, the estimating result in samples with small volume is biased because we ignore the short-time dynamic interactions between variables. On the other hand, the distribution of least squares estimators is unnormal. Hence, doing the usual test hypotheses using statistics is invalid. Engel-Granger methodology is based on the assumption of a co-integration vector and when there is more than one co-integration vector, using this method will lead to inefficiencies. To resolve these problems, Johansson (1989) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) proposed maximum likelihood estimation method for co-integration test.
Johansen-Juselius cointegration method is not useful because stationary degree of model variables may not be the same. In this method, short and long time relationship between the dependent variable and the other explanatory variables of the model is simultaneously estimated. This method does not require the same degree of variables' co-integration. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology is applicable in the case of variables combinations of I (1) and I (0) cointegration.
In this method, in order to estimate long-term relationship a two-stage method can be used which is as follows. In the first stage Banerjee et al.'s (1993) test is used. The null hypothesis of this test shows that there is not any co-integration or long-time relationship between the variables and t statistics is used. In the second stage which is proposed by Pesaran and Shin (1996), long-term relationship between the variables under investigation is examined by calculating F statistic for significantly lagged levels of the variables in the form of error correction.
Results and Discussion
The results of long-term estimation are presented in the following Table.
significant level T statistic Standard deviation Coefficients variables
000/0 783/4- 205/0 98/0- LOIL
001/0 252/0- 993/0 25/0- LSR
009/0 456/0- 758/0 67/0- LER
039/0 442/0 330/0 14/0 LCPI
044/0 770/0 103/0 079/0 LPGW
177/0 36/1 827/2 85/3 C
Based on the results of the study,
*) The negative sign of LOCAL coefficient suggests that in long time, a change in the unit of the price of oil reduces gold price about 0.98.
*) The coeffitiont of interest rate is negative in long time. In fact, each unit change in this variable decreases the gold price about 0.25.
*) Exchange rate has a negative effect on gold price in long-term.
*) The coeffitiont of price index (inflation) has positive impact on gold price in long time.
*) The negative sign of World gold prices suggests that in long time, a unit change in the price of gold decreases the gold price about 0.079.
*) The Error correction coeffitiont is statisticaly significant; therefore, there is a co- integration relationship between the variables in the long time. The result of the Error correction estimation are reported in the following Table.
significant level T statistic Standard deviation Coefficients variables
000/0 906/5- 137/0 814/0- ECM (-1)
Conclusion
This study examines the factors affecting gold price in the quarterly time series data between 1991 and 2010, and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method is used. The results of this study indicate that short-time and long-time variations in oil prices, interest rates, and exchange rates have negative and significant impact on gold prices variable. In addition, global gold price and inflation have positive and significant impact on gold prices.
Haghi Seyed Reza; Sabahi Ahmad
Abstract
Abstract
An efficient national innovation system is of the most important factors of development and economic growth in developed countries in which to achieve by developing countries, there are ample opportunity and capabilities, despite many weaknesses and threats.
The purpose of this research is ...
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Abstract
An efficient national innovation system is of the most important factors of development and economic growth in developed countries in which to achieve by developing countries, there are ample opportunity and capabilities, despite many weaknesses and threats.
The purpose of this research is to formulate and prioritize strategies to improve the national innovation system of Iran by using comprehensive framework for strategy formulation. Thus the study is applied and survey research in terms of purpose and methodology. The statistical population includes enforcement policy and legislative institutions such as parliament, experts of government agencies in Ministries of Science, Research and Technology and Industry, Mine and Trade, R&D centers and innovation users in industrial sectors of Khorasan Razavi. Accordingly by using one hundred interviews from questionnaire designed, strengths and weaknesses and the threats and opportunities associated with innovation system of Iran have been identified. In the next step, internal factors evaluation (IFE) and external factors evaluation (EFE) matrixes were obtained and based on effectiveness factors, internal-external matrix (IE) were plotted in order to identify strategic location. Finally, optimal strategies formulated by using SWOT matrix and then Prioritize by quantity strategic planning matrix (QSPM).
The results can be used in both practical and theoretical level. In the theoretical level, it helps to collect empirical evidence for the conceptualization and development of knowledge in the field of NIS of Iran. In Application and managerial level, this study highlights the factors and strategies for government institutions to improve the national innovation system of the country.
Ahmad sabahi; Ali ranjbaraki
Abstract
This study disires to investigate the possibility of using interest payment method and floating outcome in securities consistent with interest free banking operation in Iran. According to the dominant situatcon on financial markets of the country, the application of these securities can leads to the ...
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This study disires to investigate the possibility of using interest payment method and floating outcome in securities consistent with interest free banking operation in Iran. According to the dominant situatcon on financial markets of the country, the application of these securities can leads to the use of existing financial and credential capacities in the country. In this article, floating securities, functions, and its properties will be introduced at first. Then, adaption of this method of profitability is investigated by interest free banking operation in Iran. For this purpose, after explaining the concept of interest in Islam and its examples, all types of floating securities which are useful in financial markets in Iran are recommended.
The method of interest payment or floating outcome is one of the financial innovations that have transformed international financial markets. This new financial tool has been developed due to the reduction of risk of keeping securities and reduction of exchange costs in long-term period. The results shows that, granting benefit through floating method for all types of securities based on collaboration and floating securities depending on inflation index is possible. Also the application of all mentioned securities has no conflict with interest free banking operation.
Ebrahim Mirzaei; Ahmad Sabahi; Akbar Bagheri
Abstract
هدف اصلی این مقاله، ارائه نتایج ارزیابی اقتصادی پروژه احداث راه میانبر سربیشه خراسان جنوبی به بازارچه مرزی میل 78 و نیز معرفی آثار اقتصادی- اجتماعی اجرای این طرح میباشد. ...
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هدف اصلی این مقاله، ارائه نتایج ارزیابی اقتصادی پروژه احداث راه میانبر سربیشه خراسان جنوبی به بازارچه مرزی میل 78 و نیز معرفی آثار اقتصادی- اجتماعی اجرای این طرح میباشد. ابتدا ضمن معرفی خصوصیات منطقه مورد مطالعه (استان خراسان جنوبی و شهرستان سربیشه)، وضعیت موجود مسیرهای مورد مطالعه و نیز مسیر پیشنهادی سه قطعهای و ارائه آنالیزی از هزینههای احداث و بهسازی هر یک از قطعات پیشنهادی با منافع حاصل از ارتقاء مشخصات فنی مسیرها مقایسه گردیده و در ادامه تجزیه و تحلیل هزینه- فایده طرح شامل، هزینه عملیات و منافع ریالی حاصله از حیث صرفهجویی (کاهش) در مصرف سوخت، کاهش زمان سفر و منافع ریالی حاصل از آن، کاهش میزان تصادفات و خسارات حاصله و فایده ریالی ناشی از آن، میزان صرفهجویی هزینههای عملیاتی، نقش آن در توسعه تبادلات تجاری (صادرات و واردات) به واسطه کاهش فاصله ترانزیت کالا به افغانستان و نیز شکوفایی اقتصادی استان خراسان جنوبی ارائه شده است. در پایان بر اساس نرخ تنزیل 12 درصد، ارزش فعلی خالص فواید مذکور محاسبه شده و بر این اساس نرخ بازده داخلی سرمایهگذاری معادل 4/19 درصد به دست آمده است که این مهم، توجیه اقتصادی بالای این پروژه را تایید مینماید.
